| sakura698 |
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17/12/2019 06:27 | Sujet du message:
If you had two sets of data, one being a | |
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If you had two sets of data, one being a team’s shooting percentage, and the other being a team’s ability to generate shot-attempts, which set would be better in terms of predicting future 5-on-5 goal-scoring ability? At first blush, one may guess the former. Luke Kennard Jersey . After all, it gives us the percentage of shots on net that result in a goal. The latter set of data only tells us how frequently shots are generated, and tells us little – if anything – about a team’s goal-scoring ability. But, that’s not the case. Plenty of work has been done on this topic, particularly at even-strength. The answer is clear: shot-attempt metrics and puck possession proxies like Corsi are much more predictive than shooting percentage, primarily because shooting percentage is swamped by random variance. It’s important to note that this also holds true for special teams. While many hockey analysts appear to obsess over raw conversion rates, the same above principle – that shot generation is far more predictive of future success (or failure) than shooting percentage – is vital in forecasting future success. Why? Because shooting percentage, even in a power-play situation where scoring chances are aplenty, is not a very repeatable skill. It’s easy to illustrate this by simply grabbing a team’s shooting percentage over the first half of the season, and finding how well it correlates to the team’s shooting percentage over the second half of the season. Taken from the years 2007 through 2011: I included the coefficient of determination (0.01) – or percent of variance explained – to illustrate the randomness in shooting percentage. As you can see, a team’s 5-on-4 shooting percentage through the first 41 games of the season does nothing in terms of telling us how well it will convert on shots over the next 41 games. Shot-attempt generation, we know, is a repeatable 5-on-5 skill. Does the same hold true for 5-on-4? Let’s grab the CorsiFor/60 for the same teams in the above sample, and see if their first-half numbers and second-half numbers show similarity. The graph and coefficient of determination here are much more convincing. A team’s ability to generate (or not generate) shots through the first 41 games will likely carry over to the next 41 games, which means this particular measurement has predictive value – far more than, say, shooting percentage. More than anything else, I think this topic is timely. If you poll members and fans of the National Hockey League as to who the league’s deadliest power-play is right now, I think you’ll get a stunningly similar response in the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now, that’s a decent choice – they have a ton of talented forwards, they have exhibited ability to generate shot-attempts with frequency in every game-state, and they have puck-movers on the back-end who can whip the puck through the neutral zone with tempo. All of that is fantastic However, the primary reason I think most would select the Pittsburgh Penguins right now is conveniently tied into the fact that they’ve converted on 31.6% of their power-plays through a 17.54% shooting percentage, second-highest in the league. But, if we are trying to forecast future outcomes, we know to move away from shooting percentages and gravitate towards shot generation. How do the Pittsburgh Penguins look in that aspect of the game? Power Play CorsiFor/60 Rank Team CorsiFor/60 1. Washington Capitals 127.7 2. San Jose Sharks 114.3 3. Arizona Coyotes 113.9 4. Philadelphia Flyers 106.2 5. Chicago Blackhawks 104.2 6. Toronto Maple Leafs 102.5 7. Winnipeg Jets 102.3 8. Detroit Red Wings 101.5 9. Boston Bruins 100.9 10. Ottawa Senators 96.8 11. New York Rangers 95.2 12. Pittsburgh Penguins 95.1 In reality, what we have in Pittsburgh is a good power-play with elite scoring talent. I’m highly skeptical, however, that it’s going to be the best unit by the end of the season, because it still pales in comparison to the units established in Washington (currently 28.8% conversion rate; 2nd) and San Jose (currently a 23.8% conversion rate; 4th), both historically and through the first leg of 2014-2015. Washington’s power-play has been performance art for years, and if nothing else, these early season numbers show the kind of incredible ability they have at blitzing opposing penalty kill units. Their scheme starts with a series of well-designed neutral zone rushes, and almost always features the likes of Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson on the right-side of the ice, with Alex Ovechkin waiting in his one-time wheelhouse for cross-ice passes. Backstrom and Johansson generally engage in sequences of back-and-forth passing to draw the defense deeper towards their own crease, which sets up two other options away from the Ovechkin primary at the blueline. If the defense pays too much respect to Ovechkin, Mike Green, John Carlson, and Matt Niskanen hammer away from the point. And if the defense pays equitable respect to the point shot and Ovechkin, Backstrom and Johansson needle their way deeper into the box of the penalty kill. If teams are looking at ways to improve their power play through modelling the attacking styles around the league, they could do worse than Mike Johnston’s Pittsburgh Penguins. But, right now, the kings of 5-on-4 still reside in the D.C. area. And, the king of predictive utility for power-play performance is still embedded in shot attempts. Chauncey Billups Jersey . PETERSBURG, Fla. Detroit Pistons Store .C. - Phoenix Suns coach Jeff Hornacek says guard Goran Dragic will return to the starting lineup against the Charlotte Hornets after missing the last two games with a strained back. https://www.cheappistonsonline.com/936y-nathaniel-clifton-jersey-pistons.html . - Derek Wolfe says hes finally healthy after suffering a seizure in November that doctors now believe was related to the spinal cord injury he suffered in the preseason.WINNIPEG -- Jennifer Jones is one of the most successful skips in Canadian curling but, starting Sunday, shell be trying once more to capture the one prize that has eluded her so far -- a trip to the Olympics. Jones and her rink will join 15 more of Canadas best curling teams at the trials to determine which men and women will wear Canadas colours in Sochi. "To go to the Olympics I think, as any athlete in any sport, is an incredible experience," says Jones. "To represent your country at this huge sporting event, what the Olympics is all about, would be amazing." She has tried twice before, in 2005 and 2009 and struck out both times, not even making the playoffs. And its not like she was struggling with her game at the time, winning the Scotties in both those years. But Tim Hortons Roar of the Rings Canadian Curling Trials isnt a competition where winning your province even gets you into this game. In fact, 14 of the 16 teams vying to represent Canada at the Olympics come from just three provinces, Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba. The outliers are John Morris, who won Olympic gold as Kevin Martins third in 2010 and now skips John Cotters rink out of Vernon, B.C., and Stefanie Lawton of Saskatoon. Alberta is represented by Kevin Koe from Calgary, Renee Sonnenberg from Grande Prairie and Martin, Heather Nedohin and Val Sweeting from Edmonton. Ontario is fielding Brier champion Brad Jacobs from Sault Ste. Marie, John Epping from Toronto, 2013 Scotties winner Rachel Homan from Ottawa (who beat Jones last February to take the title) and Glenn Howard and Sherry Middaugh from Coldwater. From Winnipeg, Jones is joined by Jeff Stoughton, Mike McEwan and Chelsea Carey. Jones knows from bitter experience how tough it can be to score the coveted spot on Canadas Olympic team, although right now shes the top-ranked female curler in Canada. "Its the eight best teams in the country that come together and play, so every game you have to be at youur very best. John Long Jersey. . And its a really short round robin. Its only seven games. So you have to go out there and really play well from start to finish." The womens final will take place on Saturday, Dec. 7, with the mens final on that Sunday. Jone has had more than just a taste of success with four national titles (three in a row starting in 200 and one world title on her CV. She finished third at another world championship in 2010. But theres something special about the Olympics. "To win the Scotties is incredible. Any time you get to represent Canada is unbelievable, but to go as a bigger part of a big team Canada would be the experience of a lifetime. "I think every team at the Olympic trials wants to have that dream come true." Sweeting and Jacobs were the final rinks to qualify for this event at the Olympic pre-trials earlier in November in Kitchener, Ont. Its another measure of how tough it is to just get into the Olympic trials that 2006 Olympic gold medal winner Brad Gushue from Newfoundland didnt qualify. He lost to Jacobs in Kitchener but Gushue will be at the trials as an alternate on Martins team and another member of that 2006 team, Mark Nichols, is throwing lead rocks for Stoughton. Organizers are predicting huge attendance numbers for the trials, being held at the MTS Centre while the Winnipeg Jets are on an extended road trip. And it doesnt hurt that TSN has Will Farrell, in the persona of his outrageous TV anchorman Ron Burgundy, signed on for the opening of the event. He will team with network curling veteran Vic Rauter and Rauter got into the spirit of things in the news release announcing Ferrells appearance. "Its an honour to work with such an esteemed colleague. Im a huge fan of his work. Who are we talking about again?" As for the reason behind the guest gig, it might have something to do with the fact that "Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues" opens in theatres Dec. 20. ' ' '  |
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